The Second Round

What the market missed in 2026

A fair-value model priced every college prospect using only what was knowable before draft night. No draft slots, no mock drafts. Then we compared its numbers to where players actually went. On average the market wins. At the extremes of disagreement, history says the model does. These are the loud disagreements.

The number on each card is the gap between what the model thinks the player is worth and what his draft slot historically returns, in career-value points. Bigger number, louder disagreement.

THE MODEL WANTED MORE

Cameron Boozer+19.3VS SLOT PRICE

Pick 3 · Duke

  • · Elite offensive production for the level
  • · Big overall college impact
Caleb Wilson+11.4VS SLOT PRICE

Pick 4 · UNC

  • · Big overall college impact
  • · Elite offensive production for the level
Christian Anderson Jr.+8.3VS SLOT PRICE

Pick 18 · Texas Tech

  • · Elite offensive production for the level
  • · Strong offensive impact numbers

THE MODEL WOULD HAVE PASSED

Mikel Brown Jr.-3.8VS SLOT PRICE

Pick 6 · Louisville

  • · Lead-guard assist volume, mostly already credited through his playmaking numbers
  • · Big assist volume, mostly already credited through his decision-making numbers
Morez Johnson Jr.-2.5VS SLOT PRICE

Pick 9 · Michigan

  • · Ultra-efficient scorer, a college stat that historically flatters more than it projects
  • · Crashes the offensive glass, real value on the margins, though history reads it as a role-player trait more than a star signal
Bennett Stirtz-2.5VS SLOT PRICE

Pick 16 · Iowa

  • · No recruiting pedigree on record
  • · Old for the class, so production gets an age discount

The full board

Sorted by the model's valuation, best first

STEAL means he was drafted well below where the model ranked him in this class; PRICEY means well above.

Out of leagueFringeRotationStarterAll-Star levelEliteEach bar is the model's chance the player's first 4 NBA seasons land in that tier.
3
Cameron Boozer
Cameron BoozerDuke · Wing
STAR 93% [81–99]
FAIR
4
Caleb Wilson
Caleb WilsonUNC · Big
STAR 62% [36–81]
FAIR
1
AJ Dybantsa
AJ DybantsaBYU · Wing
STAR 50% [26–80]
FAIR
5
Keaton Wagler
Keaton WaglerIllinois · Guard
STAR 46% [25–67]
FAIR
2
Darryn Peterson
Darryn PetersonKansas · Wing
STAR 34% [8–45]
PRICEY
8
Kingston Flemings
Kingston FlemingsHouston · Guard
STAR 34% [10–53]
FAIR
18
Christian Anderson Jr.
Christian Anderson Jr.Texas Tech · Guard
STAR 34% [11–44]
STEAL
19
Allen Graves
Allen GravesSanta Clara · Wing
STAR 34% [8–50]
STEAL
13
Nate Ament
Nate AmentTennessee · Wing
STAR 15% [5–42]
STEAL
17
Ebuka Okorie
Ebuka OkorieStanford · Guard
STAR 15% [8–36]
STEAL
10
Brayden Burries
Brayden BurriesArizona · Wing
STAR 14% [6–34]
FAIR
14
Hannes Steinbach
Hannes SteinbachWashington · Big
STAR 11% [7–31]
FAIR
11
Yaxel Lendeborg
Yaxel LendeborgMichigan · Wing
STAR 12% [5–30]
FAIR
7
Darius Acuff Jr.
Darius Acuff Jr.Arkansas · Guard
STAR 12% [5–30]
PRICEY
30
Koa Peat
Koa PeatArizona · Wing
STAR 12% [7–36]
STEAL
15
Dailyn Swain
Dailyn SwainTexas · Wing
STAR 11% [5–13]
FAIR
UDFA
Tyler Tanner
Tyler Tanner— · Guard
STAR 11% [7–35]
STEAL
52
Henri Veesaar
Henri VeesaarUNC · Wing
STAR 13% [4–30]
STEAL
UDFA
Amari Allen
Amari Allen— · Wing
STAR 13% [3–29]
STEAL
UDFA
Flory Bidunga
Flory Bidunga— · Big
STAR 12% [4–31]
STEAL
6
Mikel Brown Jr.
Mikel Brown Jr.Louisville · Guard
STAR 8% [3–25]
PRICEY
9
Morez Johnson Jr.
Morez Johnson Jr.Michigan · Big
STAR 8% [3–17]
PRICEY
44
Maliq Brown
Maliq BrownDuke · Wing
STAR 8% [2–43]
STEAL
12
Aday Mara
Aday MaraMichigan · Big
STAR 8% [2–16]
PRICEY
23
Zuby Ejiofor
Zuby EjioforSt. John's · Big
STAR 8% [2–16]
FAIR